Door Number 15 by cogdogblog via Flickr

Since I’ve starting writing AppMtn, I’ve learned that I can usually tell you why a name rose – hindsight is 20/20 – but I cannot tell you, with any certainty, which names will make the US Top 1000 in the year 2020.

I can say, with some confidence, that the majority of the names in the Top 100 will likely still be there in another decade.  It takes years for popular names to wane: Jennifer reached #1 in 1970, but didn’t leave the Top 100 until 2009.  Jason reached #2 in 1972, and he still came in at #69 last year.

The Freakonomics 2015 predictions at Baby Name Garden reflect the power of momentum.  It is easy to imagine that Avery and Jackson would rise, but nearly impossible to guess which names would enter the Top 1000.  They identified stylish choices like McGregor and Eleanora – not bad for baby naming rookies – but it takes more than that to make a popular name.  There’s also this Business Insider article, suggesting that Griffin and Adele are among the ones to watch.

So I’m always in awe of the annual po0l winners at Baby Name Wizard.  They seem to have a crystal ball, or maybe just a really sharp sense of how trends impact statistics.

Elsewhere online:

• Still I try – could Meridian be the next big thing?  Spotted her at You Can’t Call It “It” and For Real Baby Names this week;
• British Baby Names sourced some sibsets from the 1900 and 1911 census data.  Lottie Lily Louisa, Kenrick, Rufus Theodore … proof that inventive baby naming is nothing new;
• You’d expect indie musicians to pick cool names for their kids, and Elisabeth’s list at You Can’t Call It “It” does not disappoint.  Panda, anyone?
• I loved Waltzing More Than Matilda’s list of Sydney suburbs that could double as baby names.  Avalon is a long-time favorite of mine.
• Is this post at Swistle a good example of why so many parents are drawn to surname names?  She describes Landon and Brady as “English gentlemen” and “strong” sounding.  I don’t agree with her descriptions, but I am curious if that makes me the odd one out.

In starbaby news:

• Alicia Silverstone almost managed to take the focus off Mariah Carey and Nick Cannon’s twins by issuing a birth announcement of her own.  Alicia’s cub was named Bear Blu;
• Except not really, because Nick Cannon gave an interview explaining the names and insisting “I think we did a good job on the names. They ain’t gonna be mad at us when they grow up.”  Okay.  I hope so, too;
• Kings of Leon’s Matthew Followill is a new dad to son Knox Cameron Patrick;
• How did I miss this?  David Boreanaz and wife Jamie had everyone talking when they named their daughter Bardot Vita.  Only they never called her Bardot.  They call her Bella, and apparently have made the change legally, too.  (Though it looks like they added Bella, so she’s Bella Vita Bardot.)  Hat tip to M for mentioning it on the Nameberry post about Modern Hero Names.

Last week at Nameberry was all about names borrowed from the labels of kids’ designers.  This week I’m off in a different direction.   Think fjords + comic books + popcorn + the ancient world.

That’s all for this week.  As always, thanks for reading and have a great week!